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hamnox comments on Open thread, 11-17 March 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion

3 Post author: David_Gerard 11 March 2014 10:45PM

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Comment author: hamnox 13 March 2014 03:14:40AM 1 point [-]

More concretely than Lumifer's answer, it would encourage you to diversify your plans, and try not to rely on leveraging any one model or enterprise. It also encourages you to play odds instead of playing it safe, because safe is rarely as safe as you think it is. Try new things regularly, since cost of doing them is generally linear while pay-off could easily be exponential.

That's what I got out of it, anyways.

Comment author: AlexSchell 15 March 2014 01:16:22AM 0 points [-]

I'm not actually sure the concept can do all that work, mostly because we don't have plausible theories for making decisions from imprecise probabilities (with probability we have expected utility maximization). See e.g. this very readable paper.