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Strilanc comments on Open thread, 11-17 March 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I'm curious what others thoughts are on Black Swan Theory/Knightian Uncertainty vs. pure Bayesian Reasoning. Do you think there are things in which bayesian prediction will tend to do more harm than good?
BrienneStrohl posted something on her facebook that said she thought the phrase "Knightian Uncertainity" had negative information value, and an interesting conversation ensued between Brienne, myself, Eliezer,Kevin Carlson, and a few others. It's of particular interest to me because Black Swan Theory is so central to how I view the world. If it turns out I've been assuming unpredictability when I should be trusting my predictions, I'll have to reevaluate some of the choices I've made.
Here's the original conversation for context, if you're interested: https://www.facebook.com/strohl89/posts/10152237491864598
I associate Knightian Uncertainty with Eliezer's description of Expected Creative Surprises.
That is to say, I am uncertain what a rival company will do, but I know they will try to achieve a goal. When achieving that goal involves surprising me, I should expect them to surprise me even though I'm using the best model I can to model them.