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trist comments on Irrationality Game III - Less Wrong Discussion

11 Post author: CellBioGuy 12 March 2014 01:51PM

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Comment author: Error 12 March 2014 06:53:02PM 3 points [-]

I still think you're overconfident, so upvoting, but the justification is convincing enough to make me update from near-zero to something noticeably above zero. I never thought of it quite that way.

Comment author: trist 12 March 2014 09:59:01PM 0 points [-]

Translate it to "In x% of new non-urban houses, there are options better than flush toilets." My confidence in my confidence assignment isn't very high yet though, so I am quite open to being overconfident.

And obviously both lists are non-exhaustive.

  • Flush toilets handle large numbers of people for a long time fairly easily.
  • Flush toilets get clogged.
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