Not a bad hypothesis, but your confidence level is too high... hence my upvote.

Interesting. So, you have Robin Hanson's belief that we won't get a strong singleton; but you lack his belief that emulated minds will be able to evaluate each other's abilities with enough confidence that trade (taking into account the expected value of fighting) will be superior to fighting? That's quite the idiosyncratic position, especially for 95% confidence.

Are you imagining that outcome because you expect resource shortages? Peaceful lives are just too boring? Posthumans are generally too alien to each other for stable cooperation?

Now that I think about it, I find the last alternative pretty plausible.

Seems fairly reasonable on its face, actually; once you've gotten rid of disease and age, what's left is accidents, violence, and suicide if you're counting that separately from violence.

Upvoted, though, because I think you're undercounting accidents (more Americans already die in automotive accidents than die violently, by a large margin; I'd expect the same is true for the rest of the First World but haven't seen statistics) and making too strong a statement about the structure of posthuman society.

i think the concept of death is extremely poorly defined under most variations of posthuman societies; death as we interpret it today depends on a number of concepts that are very likely to break down or be irrelevant in a post-human-verse

take, for example, the interpretation of death as the permanent end to a continuous distinct identity:

if i create several thousand partially conscious partial clones of myself to complete a task (say, build a rocketship), and then reabsorb and compress their experiences, have those partial clones died? if i lose 99.5% of my physical incarnations and 50% of my processing power to an accident, did any of the individual incarnations die? have i died? what if some other consciousness absorbs them (with or without my, or the clones', permission or awareness)? what if i become infected with a meme which permanently alters my behavior? my identity?