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CellBioGuy comments on Irrationality Game III - Less Wrong Discussion
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Irrationality Game:
Everyone alive in developed nations today will die a fairly standard biological death by age:
150: 75%
250: 95%
(This latter figure accounts for the possibility that the stories of the odd Chinese monk living to age 200+ after only eating wild herbs from age 10 on up is actually true and not an exaggeration, or someone sticking to unreasonably-effective calorie restriction regimes religiously combined with some interesting metabolic rejiggering in the coming decade or two).
The majority (90+%) of people born in developed nations today will die a fairly standard biological death by age:
120: 85%
150: 99%
I think the probability of a nuclear war or bio-engineered plague is higher than 5%.
I think there's a good chance that a nuclear war would kill less than 90% of the population, though.
(But now that I think about it, even the ones it doesn't kill straight away will be much less likely to live to 120 than they otherwise would.)