Lumifer comments on Rationalist fiction: a Slice of Life IN HELL - Less Wrong Discussion
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I don't see much good in associating rationality with extreme caution.
I am also not sure of how much use will rationality be in a world where reality is out to get you. It is merely unlikely that all the air molecules in a room will decide to be elsewhere leaving hard vacuum in their place -- or that you fall a hundred feet underground through solid rock and then remain entombed there for a REALLY long time...
How improbable the bad outcomes are would depend on which level of Hell you're into, perhaps?