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Nornagest comments on How valuable is volunteering? - Less Wrong Discussion
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I acknowledge that it exists, but I would not describe Ubuntu's out-of-box application suite as "really successful"; I'm talking more about the likes of Apache, gcc, OpenSSL, Linux as a server operating system. Firefox is about the only open-source end-user app that I can think of with that kind of success, and the Mozilla Foundation isn't exactly running on a traditional OSS contribution model.
Leaving the definition of success aside, on Windows I can think of three things where free software is noticeably inferior: MS Office, Photoshop, games. But otherwise the market for small programs, utilities, etc. that existed fifteen years ago is essentially dead now. Partially it's because so much moved into the browser, but partially it's because good free alternatives exist (e.g. look at media players, for example).