Anatoly_Vorobey comments on Explanations for Less Wrong articles that you didn't understand - Less Wrong Discussion
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1) Do you understand the standard story about the thermodynamic arrow of time? Wikipedia:
2) Do you understand the standard story about the smoking/tar/cancer example in Pearl's theory of causality? If not, here's a good explanation.
For anything more advanced than that, Ilya is probably your best bet :-)
1) yes 2) no, and I'll read through Nielsen's post, thanks. I've been postponing the task of actually reading Pearl's book.