Surely that can't be correct.
Intuitively, I would be pretty ready to bet that I know the correct bookbag if I pulled out 5 red chips and 1 blue. 97% seems a fine level of confidence.
But if we get 1,000,004 red and 1,000,000 blues, I doubt I'd be so sure. It seems pretty obvious to me that you should be somewhere close to 50/50 because you're clearly getting random data. To say that you could be 97% confident is insane.
I concede that you're getting screwed over by the multi-verse at that point, but there's got to be some accounting for ratio. There is no way that you should be equally confident in your guess regardless of if you receive ratios of 5:1, 10:6, 104:100, or 1000004:1000000.
I concede that you're getting screwed over by the multi-verse at that point, but there's got to be some accounting for ratio. There is no way that you should be equally confident in your guess regardless of if you receive ratios of 5:1, 10:6, 104:100, or 1000004:1000000.
Yeah, that's why I added "(in that context)" - i.e. we are 100% sure that those two hypotheses are the only one. If there's even a 0.01% chance that the distribution could be 50% / 50% (as is likely in the real world), then that hypothesis is going to become way more likely.
You know the drill - If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.