++ arbitrary internet points for putting an estimate on one of your plans. Quantifying is better than vague worrying or endless flipflopping between intense fear and hope, don't you think?

Murphy-proofing does seem to have that effect of making a bad situation seem much less depressing. It's a bit surprising for an activity that is so heavily based on putting detail to everything that could possibly go wrong. I suppose I have an implicit expectation that the scary fog of uncertainty is always obscuring even worse monsters, and this expectation is getting proven wrong. It turns out that most monsters are easier to hit or hide from when you can see them coming.