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witzvo comments on Open Thread, April 27-May 4, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Hi, CFAR alumni here. Reposting I guess, the OTs are getting confusing.
Is there something like a prediction market running somewhere in discussion?
Going mostly off of Gwern's recommendation, it seems like PredictionBook is the go-to place to make and calibrate predictions, but it lacks the "flavour" that the one at CFAR did. CFAR (in 2012, at least) had a market where your scoring was based on how much you updated the previous bet towards the truth. I really enjoyed the interactional nature of it.
What would it take to get such a thread going online? I believe one of the reasons it worked so well at minicamp was because we were all in the same area for the same period of time, so it was simple to restrict bets to relevant things we could all verify. Even if most of the posts wind up being relevant only to the local meetups, it would be nice to have them up in the same place for unofficial competition. Is that something you would use?
This is interesting. Can someone point me to documentation of the scoring? Thanks. (unless it's a CFAR secret or something)
100 × log2(Your probability of outcome/Previous Bet probability of outcome).. For example: if you updated a 50% house bet to 99% being correct would give you 98.55 "bits", while being wrong would give you -564.39
It's posted a couple of posts up. I had given no credence to the idea that it could be a CFAR secret.