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philh comments on Open Thread, April 27-May 4, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion

0 Post author: NancyLebovitz 27 April 2014 08:34PM

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Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 29 April 2014 10:42:28AM *  2 points [-]

LINK: Someone on math.stackexchange ask if politically incorrect conclusions are more likely to be true by Bayesian Logic. The answer given is pretty solid (and says no).

Comment author: philh 29 April 2014 01:40:32PM 1 point [-]

It assumes that the ratio of true-to-false statements repeated is the same regardless of political correctness. (If a true PC statement is four times more likely to be repeated than a false PC statement, then a true PI statement is four times more likely to be repeated than a false PI statement.) I'm not sure that's true.

But this does give us the conditions required to assume a PI statement is more likely to be true than a PC statement, which is valuable.