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palladias comments on Open Thread, April 27-May 4, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Unfortunately, this would be easy to abuse online. Create a sockpuppet account, make a stupid prediction, and then quickly fix the prediction using your real account. This is equivalent to moving bits from one account to the other.
At CFAR workshop all participants were real people. But they still missed an existing opportunity to abuse the system: there were rewards for winning, but no punishment for losing. So two people could agree to transfer a lot of bits from one to another, and split the price afterwards.
Maybe a system more difficult to abuse can be designed, but a direct copy of algorithm used at CFAR isn't it.
Not quite true. I ran the markets, and I did threaten to fearsomely glare at people who were abusing the system. (And my glare is very fearsome).