Not sure about that, for example if he had died at the age of 81 in a car accident. Although I appreciate your effort, I am not sure that you have the reference class of events correct.
The all-cause mortality figures were chosen for convenience. I'm sure one could dig up more appropriate figures that exclude accident, homicide, etc. But the reference class is still going to be pretty broad: if Roberts had committed suicide, had developed cancer, had a stroke rather than heart attack (or whatever), had a fall, people would be speculating on biological roots ('perhaps he was going senile thanks to the oils' or 'he claimed the flax seed oil was helping balance, but he fell all the same!'). And I'm not sure that the better figures would be that much lower: this isn't a young cohort - few elderly people are murdered or die in car accidents, AFAIK, and mortality is primarily from diseases and other health problems.
The prior probability of this happening has got to be far less than the prior probability of him simply dying from any cause before his actuarial life expectancy.
As I've pointed out, the prior is quite high that he would die in a 'suspicious' way.
Do you have an estimate of the probability that Robert's death is related to his supplement regime?
No, and I refuse to give one on a problem which reflects motivated cognition on the part of many people based on heavily-selected evidence & post hoc reasoning. Any estimate would anchor me and bias my future thinking on diet matters. The story is far too salient, the evidence far too weak.
I'm sure one could dig up more appropriate figures that exclude accident, homicide, etc. But the reference class is still going to be pretty broad: if Roberts had committed suicide, had developed cancer, had a stroke rather than heart attack (or whatever), had a fall, people would be speculating on biological roots
I would have to agree with that, however some causes of death are more suspicious than others. In this case, he died apparently died suddenly, at an age where sudden death is rather unusual in people with no self-reported history of serious h...
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