In this case, he died apparently died suddenly, at an age where sudden death is rather unusual in people with no self-reported history of serious health problems. Also, this kind of sudden death is usually the result of cardiovascular problems, i.e. heart attack or stroke. Last, he was known to be regularly consuming a lot of concentrated fat on a regular basis (half a stick of butter a day; and perhaps olive oil and flax seed on top of it); fatty foods have long been suspected as playing a role in cardiovascular problems, that they cause lipids to build up in the blood stream and clog up the works.
Again, this is post hoc reasoning conjured upon observing the exact particulars of his death, and so suspect even without considering additional questions like whether fat is all it's cracked up to be, what his medical tests were saying, etc.
Well do you agree that what happened is more 'suspicious' than if he had died at the age of 75 from lung cancer?
Yes.
Suit yourself, but it strikes me as confusing that I would make a claim and you would respond with a calculation which seems to address the claim but actually doesn't.
My calculation addresses a major part of the Bayesian calculation: the probability of an observed event ('death') conditional on the hypothesis ('his diet is harmful') being false. Since dying aged 52-80 is so common, that sharply limits how much could ever be inferred from observing dying.
Again, this is post hoc reasoning conjured upon observing the exact particulars of his death
Actually I don't know the exact particulars of the death. But I do agree with what I think is your basic point here -- it's extremely easy to make these sorts of connections with the benefit of hindsight and that ease might be coloring my analysis. At the same time, I do think that -- in fairness -- the death is pretty high on the 'suspicious' scale so I stand by my earlier claim.
My calculation addresses a major part of the Bayesian calculation:
Perhaps, bu...
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