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gwern comments on Open Thread, April 27-May 4, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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If his actuarial life expectancy was 80 and he had died at 79 it wouldn't have looked particularly suspicious. But according to your data, his probability of dying between 52 and 60 was only about 7.5%, which is not terribly low, but still enough to warrant reasonable doubt, especially considering the circumstances of his death.
I disagree (reasonable doubt under what assumptions? in what model? can you translate this to p-values? would you take that p-value remotely seriously if you saw it in a study where n=1?), and I've already pointed out many systematic biases and problems with attempting to infer anything from Roberts's death.
Isn't the p-value simply 100%-7.5%?
I'm not saying we can scientifically infer from his premature death that his diet was unhealthy.
I'm saying that his premature death is informal evidence that his diet at best didn't have a significant positive impact on life expectancy, and at worst was actively harmful. I can't quantify how much, but you were the one who attempted a quantitative argument and I've just criticized your argument, namely your strawman definition of "suspicious death", using your own data and assumptions, hence it seems odd that you now ask me for assumptions and p-values.