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shminux comments on Open Thread, April 27-May 4, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion

0 Post author: NancyLebovitz 27 April 2014 08:34PM

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Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 30 April 2014 07:26:00PM *  2 points [-]

We might include the three types of economically left (e.g. socialism), economically neutral (e.g. abortion) and economically right (e.g. abolish estate taxes).

That the effects of abortion are economically neutral seems like an extraordinary claim. What kind of evidence did you have in mind? If those anti-abortion people that hang out on campus are right, then roughly 50 million abortions have taken place in America since Roe v. Wade. How could an extra 50 million people have a neutral effect on the economy?

Comment author: shminux 30 April 2014 08:31:06PM *  2 points [-]

That the effects of abortion are economically nertral[sic] seems like an extrodinary[sic] claim.

Not really. If I recall, legalizing abortion has almost no effect on the birth rate, accessible contraceptives are somewhat higher, but none come close to changing cultural norms.

roughly 50 million abortions have taken place in America since Roe v. Wade.

50 million mostly legal abortions, even if the figure is correct, does not translate to 50 million more adults, of course. It is not even clear whether the overall effect is increase or decrease in population.

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 30 April 2014 10:46:48PM *  4 points [-]

Not really. If I recall, legalizing abortion has almost no effect on the birth rate, accessible contraceptives are somewhat higher, but none come close to changing cultural norms.

Well, this is what I found in < 5 minutes of searching:

...Klerman finds that legalization of abortion, particularly the broad access afforded by Roe, had some effect in reducing fertility.

-- Klerman, Jacob Alex. "US abortion policy and fertility." (2000).

I find fairly strong evidence that young women’s birthrates dropped as a result of abortion access as well as evidence that birth control pill access led to a drop in birthrates among whites.

-- Guldi, Melanie. "Fertility effects of abortion and birth control pill access for minors." Demography 45, no. 4 (2008): 817-827.

Our model estimates women ages 14 to 19 will see an 8.7% decline in birth rates, a 4.1% decline for women ages 20 to 24 and a 3% decline for women ages 25 to 29 due to abortion legalization. We predict that abortion legalization is correlated with a 10.2% decrease in the birth rates of black mothers and a 4.5% decrease in the birth rates of white mothers.

-- Coates, Brandi, Alejandro Companioni, and Zachary A. Bethune. "The Impact of Abortion Legalization on Birth Rates!."

Okay, so a quick search for studies on the effects of abortion legalization on birth rates seems to confirm my priors, so...it still looks like an extraordinary claim.

50 million mostly legal abortions, even if the figure is correct, does not translate to 50 million more adults, of course.

Agreed, I shouldn't have used that number, but according the first couple of studies I came across it definitely would be positive and over 40 years time it seems plausible that even some of those people that would have been born would have had kids by this point.

Comment author: shminux 01 May 2014 12:16:23AM 1 point [-]

Interesting, thanks. Incidentally, the CDC data show that the abortions/life births ratio is pretty significant, though it's declined from 36% in 1979 to 22% in 2010. This is surprisingly high. I don't know what to make of it. My prior expectation was maybe a percent or two. Every 5th fetus is aborted? Or am I reading the data wrong? Canadian rates seem to be similar, with every 4th fetus being aborted.

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