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gwern comments on Open Thread, May 5 - 11, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion

2 Post author: Tenoke 05 May 2014 10:35AM

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Comment author: gwern 06 May 2014 02:49:21AM * 8 points [-]

http://www.fma.org/Porto/Papers/Effects_of_Partisanship_on_Sector_Performance_Paper.pdf
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?biw=1600&bih=809&um=1&ie=UTF-8&lr=&q=related:_PUN09hrCP0gsM:scholar.google.com/
http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2012/08/31/weekend-reading-does-the-us-presidential-election-affect-the-stock-market/
http://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T043-C007-S001-how-the-stock-market-can-predict-who-will-win-the.html

The summary seems to be: look at overall index gains to predict incumbent odds; look at sectors & candidates to predict by party.

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