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gwern comments on Open Thread, May 5 - 11, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (284)
Why would LWers use such a prediction market more than PredictionBook?
Good point . I actually didn't know about PredictionBook. Now that it has been pointed out to me, I see that there is already a decent option, so my suggestion would be less valuable. However, I still think it would be useful to have a prediction market that operates with Intrade rules. Whether that is worth writing the code is another matter..
Because karma?
I don't think karma matters as much as people think it does, but if that's the only reason, LW could be programmed to look on PB.com for a matching username and increase karma based on the scores or something, much more easily than an entire prediction market written.
That has the problem that people can inflate their scores by repeatedly predicting that the sun will rise tomorrow.
Karma is even more easily - and invisibly - gameable.
Up vote.