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gwern comments on Open Thread, May 5 - 11, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I don't think karma matters as much as people think it does, but if that's the only reason, LW could be programmed to look on PB.com for a matching username and increase karma based on the scores or something, much more easily than an entire prediction market written.
That has the problem that people can inflate their scores by repeatedly predicting that the sun will rise tomorrow.
Karma is even more easily - and invisibly - gameable.
Up vote.