I don't have data, but my prior is fairly strong.
There are a lot of (temporarily) depressed teenagers, but it's rarely clinical and they rarely go for a formal evaluation to a psychiatrist or a psychotherapist.
How many people, do you think, go to a doctor and say "I think I'm mentally ill"?
How many people, do you think, go to a doctor and say "I think I'm mentally ill"?
Ah, when you phrase it like that I realize that my estimate is rather low. Near vs. Far mode, I guess. Since it's relatively unlikely that someone would do that if they weren't actually mentally ill, and some mental illness is mild enough that one wouldn't bother, and a lot of the severe ones could prevent someone from consulting a doctor on their own, a pretty low proportion of the population seems reasonable.
Does that line up with your reasoning?
edit: I think th...
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