MrMind comments on Open Thread, May 12 - 18, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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My probabilities for each scenario: 0.1 - 0.2 - 0.3 - 0.4 - 0.
After adjusting for egocentric bias, I'd say 0.2 - 0.2 - 0.3 - 0.3 - 0, even if this rings extremely wrong to my emotional brain.