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polymathwannabe comments on What do rationalists think about the afterlife? - Less Wrong Discussion
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I will watch it as I go to sleep tonight.
Regarding the 50/50 fallacy, there's two questions: 1) What is the likelihood of something happening for which you have no data that would allow you to predict it? 2) What is the likelihood of an afterlife?
The second question is the overarching question of this post, for which I may be wrong about the probability. But what I meant in the past comment is that I don't think the Fallacy of Gray applies to the first question. Sorry that I wasn't clear about that. Now that I've clarified, do you think it would be committing the Fallacy of Gray to say that something for which you have no data on has a 50/50 shot of occurring?
You don't seem to understand what it's really like to "have no data." A question with no data is something like: Will the Emperor of Alfa Centauri eat fried lummywaps or boiled sanquemels today?
On human consciousness we have lots and lots of data, more than enough to predict confidently that it's lost forever when we die.
I get your point, but your example is poor - I think we have more than enough data to answer this question: No, with 99%+ probability.