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Eugine_Nier comments on What do rationalists think about the afterlife? - Less Wrong Discussion
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It depends on where your priors come from. If you mean Knightian uncertainty, then this is a whole area of research. Afterlife is not like that.
There is plenty of experimental data to falsify the afterlife model. If you take the souls model seriously, there are concrete testable predictions it makes, these have been investigated and found to be false. The video, among many other sources, discusses a bunch of them. Based on the results of these experiments we can evaluate the probability of afterlife, and the number is tiny, though the exact number would depend on who does the calculations.
I don't have time to watch the video, can you give an example? The only experiments I can think of leave the experimenter apparently unable to report the results.
Edit: Ok, there have been reports of some experimenters who have successfully reported positive results, but not in a reliable or reproducible manner.
First, feel free to state your favorite model, or at least some starting point, e.g. "all information in the brain is duplicated in an extra-brane substrate not interacting with the currently known physical forces, such as electromagnetism", or "the mind is not located in the brain, the latter is only a conduit it uses to communicate with other minds", and we can start refining it, eventually finding what it predicts. Then we can start looking whether relevant experiments have been done.
For example, the observation that damaging a certain part of one's brain leads to cognitive changes may or may not be relevant, depending on the model used.
Similarly, noting that ape brains are very similar to human, yet monkeys have no souls is only an argument against some specific models.
Another example: an experiment that tests whether a person reporting an out-of-body experience is able to read a message secretly hidden on the upward-facing part of a ceiling fan would not falsify an epiphenomenal model where a soul simply accumulates the memories and personality, only to separate some time after the brain death becomes irreversible.
So, pick your model.
So you're asking me to pick some hypothesis to privilege.
Sure, if you want to put it this way. I see it more as making a commitment to analyzing a single afterlife model vs the no-afterlife version "consciousness is a process in a living brain". Committing to analyzing a single clearly defined model helps against inadvertently moving the goalposts if a contrary evidence is found. An explicit goalpost moving is fine, as long as it is of the form "we have found this model to be invalid, but we can construct an alternative model which does not suffer from the same weakness, so let's reject the original model and consider this one instead". I see it done in Physics all the time, by the way. So, please do pick a model. (Also, I wasn't the one who downvoted your reply. Downvoting a living conversation is one sure way to end it.)