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DanielLC comments on What do rationalists think about the afterlife? - Less Wrong Discussion
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I will watch it as I go to sleep tonight.
Regarding the 50/50 fallacy, there's two questions: 1) What is the likelihood of something happening for which you have no data that would allow you to predict it? 2) What is the likelihood of an afterlife?
The second question is the overarching question of this post, for which I may be wrong about the probability. But what I meant in the past comment is that I don't think the Fallacy of Gray applies to the first question. Sorry that I wasn't clear about that. Now that I've clarified, do you think it would be committing the Fallacy of Gray to say that something for which you have no data on has a 50/50 shot of occurring?
Do you mean anything that fits that criteria, or a given thing that fits it? I find it quite likely that there is a large number of things that are true that we have no realistic way of finding out, but it's dwarfed by the number of things that are false that we have no realistic way of finding out. If there are five things that are true that you can't verify, so you decide to believe five unverifiable things, it just means you'll be wrong ten times instead of five.