so that's a good thought. I think you're saying that nations aren't coolly calculating rational actors but groups where foreign policy is often based on false claims.

I guess it really depends on where forecasting is deployed. It will increase the power of whoever has access. If accessible to George Bush, then George is more powerful. If accessible to the public, the public is. So my question depends (at least partly) on the kind of forecasting and who controls the resulting info

also this paper seems relevant