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NancyLebovitz comments on Open Thread, May 19 - 25, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Tetlock thinks improved political forecasting is good. I haven't read his whole book but maybe someone can help me cheat. Why is improved forecasting not zero sum? suppose the USA and Russia can both forecast better but have different interests. so what?
[Edit] my guess might be that on areas of common interest like economics, improved forecasting is good. But on foreign policy...?
Improved forecasting might mean that both sides do fewer stupid (negative sum) things.