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bramflakes comments on Open Thread, May 19 - 25, 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Tetlock thinks improved political forecasting is good. I haven't read his whole book but maybe someone can help me cheat. Why is improved forecasting not zero sum? suppose the USA and Russia can both forecast better but have different interests. so what?
[Edit] my guess might be that on areas of common interest like economics, improved forecasting is good. But on foreign policy...?
A greatly simplified example: two countries are having a dispute and the tension keeps rising. They both believe that they can win against the other in a war, meaning neither side is willing to back down in the face of military threats. Improved forecasting would indicate who would be the likely winner in such a conflict, and thus the weaker side will preemptively back down.