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satt comments on [LINK] Prisoner's Dilemma? Not So Much - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (18)
I'd put, say, 45% on continuous normal distributions giving a <3.4% PD proportion, and 55% on them giving a ≤5.1% distribution. (I don't have a PredictionBook account so I'll just note those probabilities here before I look at your answers.)
Edit: I'll rot13 everything after this sentence in case anyone else is making guesses. V jnf jebat! Gur cerpvfr qvfgevohgvba nccrnef gb znxr ab qvssrerapr, cerfhznoyl orpnhfr gur CQ'f na beqvany curabzraba, abg n pneqvany bar. (Cerfhznoyl bar pbhyq cebir guvf zngurzngvpnyyl gb obyfgre Ehfpu'f cbvag.)