Open Thread, May 26 - June 1, 2014

BarbaraB

Previous Open Thread: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/k94/open_thread_may_19_25_2014/

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Previous Open Thread: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/k94/open_thread_may_19_25_2014/

You know the drill - If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.

Notes for future OT posters:

1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.

2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one.

3. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.

4. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Main.

how probabilities of events feel like

Gut feelings have pretty bad resolution. In particular, I don't think gut feelings can differentiate between, say, 2% and 3%.

As a rough approximation (and, possibly, subject to the typical mind fallacy :-D), I think the gut thinks in these categories, assuming the probability is of something bad happening:

Too low-probability to even think about it.
Too low-probability to worry about it unless the consequences are really bad.
Not likely, but worrisome -- worth guarding against unless prevention is expensive/unpleasant.
Feels dangerous, there is motivation to do something about it.
It's coming my way, active measures are called for.
I'm fucked.

For fine resolution you can train your mind. I'm not sure how trainable your gut is.