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solipsist comments on Brainstorming for post topics - Less Wrong Discussion
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The article you linked to says condom use reduces infection rate by 70%. That sounds good (sort of).
But what's the base rate? Gay and bisexual men make up 2% of the population and 72% of all new infections among 13-24 year-olds. That sounds really bad.
I would appreciate some well-researched article with numbers and conditional probabilities and the like. Perhaps several people could approach the problem from different angles and each do their own writeup?
Yeah, that doesn't surprise me all that much. For PIV sex, there is a huge incentive to use condoms: as birth control. Even with people using birth control, condoms are still pretty common.
But, in the gay community many people don't use condoms. As stated in the other article, only 1/6 gay men regularly use condoms. Hence, the higher numbers despite condoms reducing infection rate by 70% for anal sex, compared to the ~80-85% reduction in PIV sex.
Also, slight nitpick. Gay/bi/MSM make up 2% of the general population, but I'd be willing to bet that they make up a much larger percent of 13-24 year olds.
Could you explain?
Younger americans are more likely to identify as gay or bisexual, one assumes for cultural reasons.
Numbers at gallop poll link were:
Presumably some of the barriers to entry have been lowered for this demographic.
Or Greg Cochran is onto something.
I doubt it.