...it has AI-Einstein miraculously picking the correct needle out of an infinite haystack. But it's a fiction story, and so horrendously improbably things are allowed to happen.
I've been making similar complaints for years. And the replies I get are along the following lines:
Skeptic01: X is a highly conjunctive hypothesis. There's a lot of hand-waving, and arguments about things that seem true, but "seem true" is a pretty terrible argument.
LW-Member01: This is what we call the "unpacking fallacy" or "conjunction fallacy fallacy". It is very easy to take any event, including events which have already happened, and make it look very improbable by turning one pathway to it into a large series of conjunctions.
Skeptic01: But you are telling a detailed story about the future. You are predicting "the lottery will roll 12345134", while I merely point out that the negation is more likely.
LW-Member02: Not everyone here is some kind of brainwashed cultist. I am a trained computer scientist, and I held lots of skepticism about MIRI's claims, so I used my training and education to actually check them.
Skeptic01: Fine, could you share your research?
LW-Member02: No, that's not what I meant!
LW-Member03: Ignore him, Skeptic01 is a troll!!!
...much later...
Skeptic01: I still think this is all highly speculative...
LW-Member03: We've already explained to Skeptic01 why he is wrong. He's a troll!!!
I suggested recently that part of the problem with with LW was a lock of discussion posts which was caused by people not thinking of much to post about.
When I ask myself "what might be a good topic for a post?", my mind goes blank, but surely not everything that's worth saying that's related to rationality has been said.
So, is there something at the back of your mind which might be interesting? A topic which got some discussion in an open thread that could be worth pursuing?
If you've found anything which helps you generate useable ideas, please comment about it-- or possibly write a post on the subject.