If I wanted to thwart or discredit pseudo-Omega, I could base my decision on a source of randomness. This brings me out of reach of any real-world attempt at setting up the Newcomblike problem. It's not the same as guaranteeing a win, but it undermines the premise.
Certainly, anybody trying to play pseudo-omega against random-decider would start losing lots of money until they settled on always keeping box B empty.
And if it's a repeated game where Omega explicitly guarantees it will attempt to keep its accuracy high, choosing only box B emerges as the right choice from non-TDT theories.
If I wanted to thwart or discredit pseudo-Omega, I could base my decision on a source of randomness. This brings me out of reach of any real-world attempt at setting up the Newcomblike problem.
It's not a zero-sum game. Using randomness means pseudo-Omega will guess wrong, so he'll lose, but it doesn't mean that he'll guess you'll one-box, so you don't win. There is no mixed Nash equilibrium. The only Nash equilibrium is to always one-box.
Previous Open Thread: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/k9x/open_thread_may_26_june_1_2014/
(oops, we missed a day!)
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one.
3. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.
4. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Main.