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Decius comments on What should a Bayesian do given probability of proving X vs. of disproving X? - Less Wrong Discussion

0 Post author: PhilGoetz 07 June 2014 06:40PM

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Comment author: Decius 09 June 2014 04:17:41AM 0 points [-]

Is it reasonable to assign P(X) = P(willbeproven(X)) / (P(willbeproven(X)) + P(willbedisproven(X)))

No. For example, there exist statements that are unprovable but true. To assign a numerator of 0 (or epsilon) to all unprovable statements is wrong.