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Stuart_Armstrong comments on [LINK] The errors, insights and lessons of famous AI predictions: preprint - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 17 June 2014 02:32PM

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Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 18 June 2014 07:18:18AM 2 points [-]

Very valid point. But overconfidence is almost universal, and estimates where selection bias isn't an issue (duck as polls at conferences) seem to show it as well.