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Qiaochu_Yuan comments on Will AGI surprise the world? - Less Wrong Discussion
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I doubt about SIRI, but I think the plausibility of AI risk has already been shown in MIRI's writing and I don't see much point in repeating the arguments here. Regarding Pascal's mugging, I believe in bounded utility functions. So, yea, something with low probability and dire consequences is important up to a point. But AI risk is not even something I'd say has low probability.