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shminux comments on Open thread, 23-29 June 2014 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Presumably sending one flash drive back can be accomplished every 5 years in a classic time loop, letting MIRI figure out how to send MORE and more advanced data back, eventually designing the FAI in 5 years total, without having to worry about the competition.
So the penultimate timelines would look something like
MIRI wins several lotteries by buying the correct lottery tickets.
MIRI uses several hundred million dollars to hire Google's AI team.
Said team spends 4.9 years checking the work of itself/alternate teams hired in past runs.
This team decides we finally have proven-safe FAI.
And the "final" timeline goes like
Receive strange flash-drive, plug into computer, FOOM.
Almost. The final send-back is unnecessary.
Also, nothing as conspicuous as winning multiple lotteries.
But assuming that it works right, you're gaining a five year head start - which is very significant. For one, you could save all the people who would die in those five years, and also, you would probably be able to colonize more galaxies in the future, etc...
True, but at this point the nascent FAI will do the correct utility calculation and decide what to do.
Ah yes, that is a good point - assuming the FAI has access to the same ability (the window might be very narrow, for example).
It seems to be a more stable end-loop than the penultimate one. The second to last timeline will involve the FAI fooming and then deciding whatever the perfect way to ensure the loop outcome is.
You're probably right about the lotteries thing, there's a huge amount of possible money-making bets given future knowledge. Though I do think betting is the fastest way to make a huge pile of money.
Interesting thought: Maybe one should regularly buy lottery tickets so it's not suspicious if you win through shenanigans.
Is the chance of such shenanigans high enough that the expected value of a lottery ticket is worth it? That seems like just a geeky and more roundabout way of committing the same error as the people who normally buy lottery tickets.
Well you have a lot more input on whether or not you're going to be part of shenanigans. So if you have concrete plans to build a time machine, you can start buying lottery tickets in order to cover for your future plans. The same goes for if you're going to manipulate or calculate the outcome of a lottery in a more mundane way. Someone who buys 1 lottery ticket in their life and wins 290,000,000 dollars is somewhat suspicious. Someone who's been buying 1 every week for year is not.