gwern comments on A Parable of Elites and Takeoffs - Less Wrong Discussion
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Fair enough, but a lot of the objections here seem to be based on the argument that 'the Cold War was reasonably objectively safe (and we know so for [anthropicly biased reasons]), while unilateral strikes or ultimatums are objectively dangerous; hence the Cold War was the better choice', while I think the right version is 'the Cold War was objectively extremely dangerous, while unilateral strikes or ultimatums are [merely] objectively dangerous; hence the Cold War was the worse choice'. I don't think people are directly comparing the scenarios and merely making a relative judgment.