with goal x, because that would disobey the "and stop".

I think you are pointing out that it is possible to create tools with a simple-enough, finite-enough, not-self-coding enough program so they will reliably not become agents.

And indeed, we have plenty of experience with tools that do not become agents (hammers, digital watches, repair manuals, contact management software, compilers).

The question really is is there a level of complexity that on its face does not appear to be AI but would wind up seeming agenty? Could you write a medical diagnostic tool that was adaptive and find one day that it was systematically installing sewage treatment systems in areas with water-borne diseases, or even agentier, building libraries and schools?

If consciousness is an emergent phenomenon, and if consciousness and agentiness are closely related (I think they are at least similar and probably related), then it seems at least plausible AI could arise from more and more complex tools with more and more recursive self-coding.

It would be helpful in understanding this if we had the first idea how consciousness or agentiness arose in life.