You certainly do when placebo effects are involved. Also, even without placebo effects, is what you said true when taking into account anthropic reference classes? Finally, if we don't know the cause of the Fermi paradox, we can not be sure that flooding the galaxy with radio signals won't causally effect the chances of our escaping the paradox so the analogy here might be to updating on the chance of your getting sick because you got yourself vaccinated.

Still, I like how you put your objection and it's one I should more thoroughly address if I work further on the idea.