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Mark_Friedenbach comments on Quickly passing through the great filter - Less Wrong Discussion

10 Post author: James_Miller 06 July 2014 06:50PM

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Comment author: [deleted] 15 August 2014 06:12:12PM *  0 points [-]

Not if evolution of multicellular organisms or complex nervous systems is a random (Poisson) process. That is to say, if the development of the first generation of multicellular life or intelligent life is a random fluke and not a gradual hill that can be optimized toward, then one should not expect behavior analagous to a progress bar. If it takes 12 billion years on average, and 12 billion years go by without such life developing, then such a result is stlil 12 billion years away.