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VipulNaik comments on Time series forecasting for global temperature: an outside view of climate forecasting - Less Wrong Discussion
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Also, note that El Nino is a seasonal phenomenon. At the decadal level, the things that matter are probably PDO/AMO/solar activity, in addition to greenhouse gas forcing.
(There are some claims about some kind of relationship between El Nino frequency and PDO phase, but I wasn't really able to get a good understanding of the overall state of current research).