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buybuydandavis comments on Time series forecasting for global temperature: an outside view of climate forecasting - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (11)
Is the lower red dotted line also a prediction in 2000, like the IPCC, or is it an after the fact reconstruction?
If a prediction, it would have predicted the current warming pause, which would be impressive. However, I get the impression it wasn't a future prediction,.
The paper was submitted and accepted in 2013, and Akasofu was probably aware of the temperatures 2000-2013. So even if he didn't use that data explicitly in getting the model parameters, it could probably have influenced his selection of the model etc.
The real test of any of these models will be based on data in coming years. In these sorts of things, I think it's best not to be impressed unless the model predicted something we can be sure the authors of the model had no measurement of when the model was constructed or the parameters tuned.