Manfred comments on Time series forecasting for global temperature: an outside view of climate forecasting - Less Wrong Discussion
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (11)
I think this is emblematic how the story went. Kulka was a paleoclimatologist - he studied the cycles of ice ages, and was pointing out that we're overdue for an ice age. We might read something like "due now any time" and think "oh god let's stock the ice age shelter," but the scale of ice age cycles is tens of thousands of years - "any time" to a paleoclimatologist means "next thousand years maybe."
Any news stories forecasting an ice age within the lifetime of anyone alive were about as scientifically sound as the movie The Core was about the cycle of Earths' magnetic field.