You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

Lumifer comments on [QUESTION]: What are your views on climate change, and how did you form them? - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: VipulNaik 08 July 2014 02:52PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (143)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Lumifer 09 July 2014 04:52:26PM 0 points [-]

but there is a substantial change in the total amount of real estate.

Substantial..?

Plug in the numbers for the size of the North American continent and for the expected sea level rise by 2100, for example, into your super-crude model.

Comment author: gjm 09 July 2014 11:24:00PM 1 point [-]

I probably shouldn't have said "substantial" since what I really meant was "not cancelled out in the way mwengler describes".

I don't think I can actually do the calculation without an estimate of the typical gradient of coastal land in the US (i.e., the conversion factor from sea level rise to shrinkage) but let's make a crude guess and see what happens. So, North America has an area of about 25M km^2 so our square is about 5000km on a side. Expected sea level rise by 2100 is about 0.5m (I've seen wildly inconsistent figures for this, though). Let's suppose that sea-level land has a typical gradient of 1 in 50, so that a 0.5m rise means a 25m shrinkage in the usable land. Then the total amount of land lost would be about 20000km x 25m = 20km x 25km = 500 km^2, roughly comparable to the area of San Francisco.

This is probably an underestimate: North America is wigglier than our square model (so more coast relative to its area) and I suspect that actually coastal land is flatter than 1 in 50.

So it's a small fraction of the total area (as of course was obvious from the outset) but personally I'd consider it a substantial loss if an area the size of San Francisco fell into the sea.