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Lumifer comments on [QUESTION]: What are your views on climate change, and how did you form them? - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: VipulNaik 08 July 2014 02:52PM

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Comment author: Lumifer 09 July 2014 08:29:44PM 2 points [-]

From wikipedia we see that a 1% decrease in above sea level land area happens with about a 10 m sea level rise.

I am sorry, I don't see anything like these numbers in your link.

Comment author: mwengler 10 July 2014 06:17:01AM 5 points [-]

I am sorry, I don't see anything like these numbers in your link.

I digitized the elevation distribution figure and took the slope right around sea level.

Comment author: gjm 09 July 2014 10:55:21PM 1 point [-]

The link shows (just eyeballing the plot) about 80% of the earth's land area being fairly uniformly distributed between 0 and 1000m above sea level. If we assume (a bit too simply, but it probably isn't very far off) that a 10m rise in sea level will simply turn everything between 0 and 10m above sea level into no-longer-land, that suggests about (10m/1000m)*80% ~= 0.8% of the land would go away. Doesn't seem too far out.

(How bad is the oversimplification mentioned above? It's too pessimistic because some land below sea level might remain usable, as with the Netherlands. It's too optimistic because some land still above sea level might become much less usable, e.g. by turning into little islands. My guess is that both these effects are quite small and they're similar in size.)