Luke_A_Somers comments on [link] [poll] Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence - Less Wrong Discussion
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I wouldn't be surprised if an AI went from human-level to significantly-smarter-than-human just by brute force of 'now that we've figured out what to do, let's do it HARDER', and this sort of improvement could be done in under 2 years. This is quite a different thing from a hard takeoff.