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ChrisHallquist comments on [link] [poll] Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence - Less Wrong Discussion

8 Post author: Pablo_Stafforini 09 July 2014 01:51PM

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Comment author: ChrisHallquist 10 July 2014 01:23:46AM 1 point [-]

So regarding MIRI, you could say that experts disagreed about one of the 5 theses (intelligence explosion), as only 10% thought a human level AI could reach a strongly superhuman level within 2 years.

I should note that it's not obvious what the experts responding to this survey thought "greatly surpass" meant. If "do everything humans do, but at x2 speed" qualifies, you might expect AI to "greatly surpass" human abilities in 2 years even on a fairly unexciting Robin Hansonish scenario of brain emulation + continued hardware improvement at roughly current rates.

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