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Alejandro1 comments on Forecasting rare events - Less Wrong Discussion
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Another type of rare event, not as important as the ones you discuss, but with a large community devoted to forecasting its odds: major upsets in sports, like the recent Germany-Brazil 7-1 blowout in the World Cup. Here is a 538 article discussing it and comparing it to other comparable upsets in other sports.
Potentially valuable since you have a large amount of professionals not only attempting to forecast odds but actually betting beliefs.