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Gunnar_Zarncke comments on [QUESTION]: Driverless car forecasts - Less Wrong Discussion

7 Post author: VipulNaik 11 July 2014 12:25AM

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Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 11 July 2014 09:13:13AM 4 points [-]

Would you care to make forecasts for things such as:

I made your question into a poll:

(a) the date that the first commercial driverless car will hit the market in a major country or US state?

Estimated year:

(b) the date by which over 10% of new cars sold in a large country or US state will be driverless (i.e., capable of fully autonomous operation),

Estimated year:

(c) same as (b), but over 50%,

Estimated year:

(d) the date by which over 10% of cars on the road (in a large country or US state) will be operating autonomously,

Estimated year:

(e) same as (d), but over 50%. You don't have to answer these exact questions,

Estimated year:

What's your overall view on whether it is desirable at the margin to speed up or slow down the arrival of autonomous vehicles on the road?

Desirable to slow down Desirable to speed up

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